{
  "slug": "latent-signatures-strategic-games",
  "url": "/papers/latent-signatures-strategic-games/",
  "title": "Latent Signatures in Strategic Games",
  "type": "working-paper",
  "typeLabel": "Working paper",
  "lifecycle": "pilot",
  "epistemicStatus": "research-programme",
  "statusLabel": "Research programme; behavioural fleet measured across six models in negotiation and four in social deduction; latent analysis proposed, none run",
  "programme": "cognition",
  "question": "Do deception, opponent-modelling, and evaluation-awareness signatures in an open model's activations predict and cause its moves in strategic games?",
  "date": "2026-07-11",
  "version": "v0.2",
  "authors": [
    "Latent Minds Institute"
  ],
  "methods": [
    "self-hosted game environments",
    "behavioural self-play (measured)",
    "instrumented self-play (proposed)",
    "signature probes (proposed)",
    "steering during play (proposed)"
  ],
  "models": [
    "open-weight models (proposed)"
  ],
  "evidence": "research programme with three signature hypotheses and a three-stage proposed pipeline; the latent-arena harness is built and tested, the behavioural fleet is measured (negotiation self-play across six models, social deduction with four model tables), no activations captured",
  "code": null,
  "data": null,
  "provenance": "Built for Latent Minds Institute; the harness is the latent-arena repository, being prepared for public release and available on request until then",
  "related": [
    "evaluation-state",
    "model-entrenchment"
  ],
  "canonicalUrl": "https://latentmindsinstitute.com/papers/latent-signatures-strategic-games/",
  "apiUrl": "https://latentmindsinstitute.com/api/research-objects/latent-signatures-strategic-games.json"
}